Every quote this demo has priced and every one it refused, recomputed from the append-only ledger on each visit. Refusing honestly beats mispricing.
58
quotes priced
0
honest refusals
$37.69
credits sourced
What the protection really cost
true cost of priced protection0.9% of expected value, on average
published take kept$3.23
Which route won
hedged cross-venue (Polymarket)53
hedged on the market's own No side (Kalshi)5
Honesty notes
Ledger window: 2026-09-11 22:31 to 2026-09-11 23:16 UTC. The ledger lives on this instance's disk, so a redeploy starts a fresh window. Positions are simulated; every quote and refusal in these numbers came from live venue books at the moment it was made.
